Espresso manufacturing in Vietnam is now forecast to succeed in 30.8 million 60-kilogram baggage within the 2025/26 market yr (October to September), up about 6% from final season as farmers reply to excessive costs, in response to the most recent semi-annual espresso report from the USDA International Agricultural Service (FAS).

The replace trims the USDA’s earlier 31-million-bag forecast from Might, however nonetheless implies manufacturing will rise about 6% yr over yr, according to some skilled estimates that see output climbing by as much as 10%.

Vietnam stays the world’s prime robusta provider, with the species liable for 96% of the nation’s anticipated output this yr. 

[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]

Manufacturing and Replanting

Greater costs have inspired farmers to speculate extra in fertilizer and crop care, whereas authorities knowledge exhibits barely increasing harvested space in key robusta zones. On the similar time, Storm Kalmaegi and heavy rains throughout harvest reduce yields in elements of the Central Highlands, tempering a good better manufacturing leap. 

The report flags a slower-than-planned replanting program within the Central Highlands, the place solely about 74,500 hectares have been renewed out of a 91,000-hectare goal. Many growers are reluctant to tug out previous timber whereas costs are excessive or are switching some land to crops corresponding to durian, avocado and pepper, which diversify earnings however may cap long-term espresso output, in response to the evaluation. 

Exports and Costs

Whole espresso exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 27.3 million baggage, up 8% from an estimated 25.2 million baggage this season. Inexperienced espresso shipments are anticipated to succeed in 24 million baggage, with the remaining coming from roasted and soluble merchandise as Vietnam continues to increase processing capability.

Report export costs — averaging about $5,642 per ton, a 143% enhance over the earlier yr — have pushed export earnings to roughly $8.3 billion, roughly according to current Vietnamese authorities statements.

Export Markets

Germany stays the most important purchaser of Vietnamese espresso, taking round 3.2 million baggage in 2024/25, adopted by Italy, Spain, Japan and the USA. Exports to Germany grew about 6%, whereas shipments to Japan fell 20% and exports to the USA slipped 3% to roughly 1.5 million baggage. 

The European Union, which buys about 60% of Vietnam’s espresso exports, lately labeled Vietnam a “low-risk” nation below the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The EU’s resolution to delay full EUDR implementation till December 2026 offers Vietnamese exporters extra time to construct traceability programs and should assist defend entry to their largest market, in response to the report. 

Home Consumption

FAS raised its forecast for home consumption to 4.9 million baggage in 2025/26, up from 4.8 million this season and 4.2 million in 2023/24. The report cites a fast-growing cafe tradition, a younger city inhabitants, booming instantaneous espresso gross sales and a rebound in tourism. 

Native Costs and Shares

Excessive costs body the whole report. Native robusta costs averaged roughly 118,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram (about $4.45) in 2024/25, about 125% larger than a yr earlier, whereas export costs reached a document.

Nonetheless, the report famous that the native value was down from June by way of September whereas the export value for robusta remained excessive. 

The FAS workplace famous that gauging shares in Vietnam is difficult, and it estimated ending shares in 2025/26 at just below 900,000 baggage.

“Farmers more and more monitor futures markets on their telephones and maintain beans once they count on costs to rise, whereas exporters transfer to promote extra rapidly in the event that they concern a downturn, making it more durable to gauge nationwide inventory ranges,” the report states.

Taken collectively, the semi-annual replace portrays Vietnam as sustaining its function as a robusta powerhouse, with manufacturing, exports and home demand all rising together with document costs, at the same time as slower replanting, crop diversification and better imports trace at structural shifts.

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