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Espresso Information Recap, 12 Dec: USDA predicts world espresso deficits for 2025/26, Brazil’s espresso exports fell by 21% within the first half of 2025 & different tales


Each Friday, Excellent Each day Grind rounds up the highest espresso trade information from the week. 

Editor’s observe

Though nearly all espresso merchandise (excluding soluble Brazilian espresso) are exempt from US reciprocal tariffs, espresso costs stay excessive.

The information that the USDA predicts a worldwide deficit in 2025/26 will solely drive costs larger. Compounding the scenario is Cecafé’s latest assertion that Brazil’s espresso exports fell by 21% within the first half of 2025, primarily as a result of 50% duties on shipments to the US. Port points and delays additionally led Brazilian exporters to lose R$8.7mn (roughly US$1.6mn) in October alone.

Retail costs are prone to maintain climbing in 2026. illycaffè plans to lift its costs once more in January after two will increase this yr. The Italian model additionally predicts that the C value will stabilise between US$2.80 and US$3/lb within the second half of 2026, which continues to be above the common of the previous 5 years.

As 2025 involves an finish, the value volatility that outlined this yr will proceed into the following.

The Danish Barista Champion at the 2025 World Barista Championship in Milan, Italy.The Danish Barista Champion at the 2025 World Barista Championship in Milan, Italy.

Prime tales of the week

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Devastating floods and landslides in Aceh and Sumatra have an effect on coffee-growing highlands. Excessive climate and heavy rain from Tropical Cyclone Senyar have affected over 3 million folks and displaced greater than 2 million. The Gayo highland espresso plantation zone in Aceh has additionally been severely affected by flash flooding, soil erosion, and landslides throughout a lot of the Gayo highlands, the place greater than 90,000 ha of Sumatra Gayo arabica plantation are positioned. (Kuala Simpang, Indonesia)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – USDA predicts world espresso deficits for 2025/26. The estimates present a narrower world provide margin as manufacturing drops in key origins whereas demand stays agency. Market observers anticipate continued stress on espresso costs if consumption holds regular. (Washington, DC, US)
  • Wed, 10 Dec – Sponsors introduced for 2026-27 World Barista Championships. The Tempesta by Barista Angle is the Certified Espresso Machine; the Ceado REV Zero and E37Z-Bare Grinders are the Certified Espresso Grinders; and BWT water+extra is the Certified Water Filtration Sponsor. The 2026 competitors will happen in Panama in October. (Irvine, California, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – China opens over 20,000 espresso shops in 12 months. Mission Café East Asia 2026 studies that the entire variety of shops in East Asia grew 18.4% during the last 12 months to 180,268. China, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines achieved double-digit outlet progress. China’s branded espresso store market reached 87,505 shops, turning into the one branded espresso store market globally so as to add over 20,000 internet new shops in a calendar yr. (London, UK)
  • Fri, 12 DecSan Franciscan Roaster Firm CEO and President Invoice Kennedy passes away. A former trainer and pilot, Kennedy was famend for his ardour and dedication to espresso schooling, shaping the careers of numerous professionals. He leaves behind a spouse and 6 youngsters, whereas the corporate mourns his loss and vows to honour his legacy. (Carson Metropolis, Nevada, US)

Trade information

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Reformulation and R&D information for UK sugar tax adjustments. Meals and beverage producers are accelerating reformulation to satisfy new UK sugar levy thresholds, utilizing low-calorie sweeteners, fibre bulking, and course of tweaks. R&D focuses on style retention, compliance, and value administration forward of the phased implementation of the principles. (London, UK)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey to depart place after 9 years. Government Vice President and Chief Working Officer Henrique Braun will succeed Quincey as CEO from 31 March 2026. The management change comes because the beverage firm tries to reverse slower demand for its sodas. Coca-Cola can also be exploring the sale of Costa Espresso. (Atlanta, Georgia, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Ajax and Lavazza lengthen sponsorship till 2030. The historic partnership continues, with Lavazza supplying espresso at Ajax’s Johan Cruyff Area, the coaching advanced De Toekomst, and membership occasions, whereas sustaining a presence in hospitality and fan engagement. VHC Jongens stays the operational provider within the Netherlands. (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Bacha Espresso targets 50 shops in Japan. Following a Tokyo Ginza debut, the Singaporean luxurious label plans to develop its retail and gifting presence, concentrating on as much as 50 shops to faucet premium city demand and airport retail, whereas emphasising ornate retailer design and high-margin packaged espresso. (Tokyo, Japan)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Starbucks union expands month-long strike to 34 cities. Greater than 3,800 baristas have walked out at roughly 180 shops throughout 130 US cities, demanding higher staffing, predictable schedules, and pay. Starbucks famous that lower than 1% of its 17,000 US areas had been impacted and is open to resuming talks when prepared. (Brookline, Massachusetts, US)

Companies on the market

  • Mon, 8 DecLuxurious sweet model Sugarfina acquires LA’s Caffe Luxxe. The boutique sweet model acquired the upscale espresso chain through a 100% inventory merger, marking its third strategic transfer to construct a portfolio of specialty manufacturers. Caffe Luxxe, based in 2006, operates seven areas and plans to develop into new neighbourhoods. (LA, California, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Hermanos targets UK and Center East enlargement. London’s Hermanos will pursue a franchised progress technique to develop past the capital, prioritising the Center East for its first worldwide shops and concentrating on key espresso cities to scale retail and wholesale attain. (London, UK)
A baby bird on a branch next to coffee cherries.A baby bird on a branch next to coffee cherries.

New launch

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Uncooked Materials Espresso launches 11 Million Bushes programme in Timor-Leste. The UK social enterprise has launched part two of its initiative to double espresso output and scale back poverty for smallholder households. The Kickstarter marketing campaign helps solar-powered mills, workshops, bamboo infrastructure, nurseries, soil restoration, and variety-testing forests, providing contributors named timber and future espresso from these efforts. (Bristol, UK)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – Schaerer rolls out Straightforward Entry idea for Espresso Soul. Buttons on the drip tray let wheelchair customers navigate menus and personalise drinks, whereas the touchless outlet adjusts cup top to stop spills and burns. Present Espresso Soul 10/12 machines will be retrofitted in beneath half-hour. (Zuchwil, Switzerland)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Sovda releases V2 of its Precision Fill mini-bagging machine. The corporate says the upgraded unit automates filling 250-1,000g espresso baggage with improved accuracy, sooner throughput, and decreased waste, and addresses small roaster demand for environment friendly packaging with out requiring large-scale gear funding. (Sacramento, California, US)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – MixMate launches magnetic self-stirring mug. The corporate says its Magnetic WhirlMix expertise creates a quick vortex to dissolve powders and creamers, whereas double-wall insulation retains drinks scorching for longer. The model targets espresso drinkers who add collagen, creamers, and butter for clump-free crinks. (Chicago, Illinois, US)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Lavazza unveils 2026 calendar. The Pleasure Makes Us Human calendar, photographed by Alex Webb for Armando Testa, options 12 scenes that hyperlink espresso to the Italian way of life. Lavazza positions the undertaking as a part of its long-standing partnership with up to date artwork and pictures. (Turin, Italy)

Milestone

  • Mon, 8 DecBrazilian chain The Espresso opens first US retailer in Miami. The Curitiba model has inaugurated its first US location in Miami’s Wynwood district. Identified for its Japanese-inspired minimalist design and tech-forward method, the corporate is opening this location as a big step in its world enlargement, aiming to succeed in 1,500 worldwide shops by 2028. (Miami, Florida, US)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – Dubai’s Espresso Planet marks 20-year milestone. Based with a single machine in 2005, Espresso Planet has expanded right into a regional roaster with a Dubai facility, sourcing from 23 origins, constructing retail partnerships throughout the UAE, and, most just lately, increasing into Riyadh. (Dubai, UAE)
  • Wed, 10 Dec – Biggby Espresso recognised on Forbes 2026 customer support listing. Forbes singled out Biggby’s franchise customer support programmes, workers coaching, and digital ordering, citing excessive visitor satisfaction scores. The accolade bolsters the chain’s service credentials amid enlargement plans. (East Lansing, Michigan, US)
  • Fri, 12 DecJuan Valdez makes Brazil debut with first retailer in São Paulo. The Colombian espresso chain has opened its first bodily location at Ribeirão Buying in Ribeirão Preto. Juan Valdez introduced plans to open 300 shops in South America’s greatest financial system over the following seven years utilizing a sub-franchising mannequin. (São Paulo, Brazil)

Commerce & manufacturing

  • Wed, 10 Dec – Netafim promotes precision irrigation for espresso growers. Netafim highlights drip and digital instruments, equivalent to GrowSphere and HydroCalc, to spice up espresso yields, scale back water use, and enhance resilience to local weather stress, providing tailor-made fertigation and monitoring options for espresso farms. (Giv’atayim, Israel)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Breeders develop Innovea community in Manizales. The Innovea International Espresso Breeding Community expanded to incorporate robusta, added Ghana and Vietnam as companions, harmonised genotyping and phenotyping protocols, and carried out genomic choice coaching to spice up nationwide breeding capability throughout collaborating programmes. (Manizales, Colombia)

Analysis

  • Tue, 9 Dec – New examine hyperlinks larger espresso consumption with elevated power ache in older adults. A two-year survey of 205 folks aged 60-88 discovered that those that elevated their espresso consumption reported a 6.56-point improve in ache depth, in contrast with those that decreased their consumption. In distinction, larger consumption of oily fish was related to a 4.45-point discount in ache scores. Researchers urge warning and name for additional research. (Warsaw, Poland)

Occasions & competitions

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Sial Paris 2026 to showcase world espresso improvements. The 2026 version will function expanded espresso halls with new roasting, brewing and RTD options, emphasising origin variety, sustainability, and packaging advances for patrons in search of up to date sourcing and product tendencies. (Paris, France)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – TÜV Rheinland Hong Kong convenes first world espresso machines summit. The gathering introduced collectively producers, regulators, and roasters to debate security requirements, power effectivity, and reuse laws for espresso machines and grinders, with the intention of aligning trade practices with world compliance and sustainability calls for. (Hong Kong, China)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Lincoln & York receives two bronze medals on the International Espresso Awards European version. The non-public label provider, which roasts roughly 9,000 tonnes of espresso a yr, was recognised within the blind judging by a global panel of specialists. The profitable coffees within the Flat White Various Milk class had been Single Origin Conventional, Brazil Ascarive FT, and the York Mix, demonstrating the staff’s experience throughout single origin and mix choices. (Brigg, UK)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – CoE Brazil 2025 yields R$1.8mn; Arara and Gesha lead bids. Prime provides included an Arara pure from Fazenda Aracaçu, cut up between a Japanese consortium comprising Snow Beans, Help, and Kurihara, at US$65.10/lb, and Angelino’s Espresso at US$65/lb. Moreover, a Gesha Experimental was bought to Grupo Cafeza at US$61.40/lb. (São Paulo, Brazil)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Registration opens for Grounds for Well being Week 2026. The worldwide fundraising week, which helps girls’s well being programmes in coffee-growing communities, begins every year on Worldwide Ladies’s Day. Espresso outlets and roasters can signal as much as obtain advertising and marketing kits and can be featured in nationwide Grounds for Well being campaigns. (Ashfield, Massachusetts, US)

Listed below are a couple of espresso information tales from earlier weeks that you just may discover fascinating. Have a look:

  • Thu, 4 DecLease dispute shuts down Rome’s historic 18th-century Caffè Greco. Rome’s oldest café, in operation since 1760, closed after its proprietors misplaced their last enchantment in a authorized dispute over a lease hike sought by the Israelite Hospital. The eviction order was enforced final month, however the hospital plans to protect the historic website by leasing it to a brand new tenant. (Rome, Italy)
  • Thu, 4 Dec – Chagee studies decrease earnings amid intensifying competitors. The Chinese language tea chain reported Q3 2025 internet income of US$450.7mn, reflecting elevated competitors. Internet revenue dropped to US$55.9mn, with margins declining from 18.3% to 12.4%. Regardless of a 25.9% improve in retailer areas to 7,338, weaker gross sales at franchised shops weighed on general efficiency. (Beijing, China)

Photograph credit: Specialty Espresso Affiliation

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Need to sustain with present affairs within the espresso trade? Take a look at final week’s espresso information tales and ensure to learn the newest Espresso Intelligence Information & Opinion piece on why India’s espresso market is pivoting in the direction of bakeries.



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