India’s espresso manufacturing is anticipated to carry close to 6 million 60-kilogram baggage within the 2025/26 market yr (October-September), whilst extreme monsoon rains harm yields, in response to the newest semi-annual espresso report from the USDA International Agricultural Service (FAS) in New Delhi.
The crop is predicted to achieve roughly 1.35 million baggage of arabica and 4.7 million baggage of robusta, with complete output edging barely beneath final season.
FAS initiatives complete exports will fall about 3% to only underneath 6 million baggage, as record-high green-bean costs push European patrons into shorter contracts and extra cautious buying.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Manufacturing Regular Regardless of Monsoon Rains
FAS expects arabica yields to fall 3% and robusta yields 2% after monsoon rains led to 10% extra rainfall throughout southern India, and far increased in some districts of Karnataka, the primary espresso state.
Extra moisture has improved soil situations but in addition fueled fungal illnesses, berry drop and fruit splitting, in response to sources within the report.
The USDA’s roughly 6-million-bag determine is extra conservative than the Espresso Board of India’s newest post-blossom estimate of about 403,000 metric tons (round 6.7 million baggage). But each estimates account for about 4% of the world’s espresso, with India trailing Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia and Uganda in complete manufacturing.
Exports Squeezed by Brazil Competitors
Whole exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 5.99 million baggage, down from 6.21 million in 2024/25. Inexperienced espresso accounts for about two-thirds of shipments and on the spot espresso for the remainder, with Italy, Germany, Russia, Belgium and the United Arab Emirates as main patrons.
12 months-to-date shipments (October-August) are already down 11% by quantity as European roasters transfer from 12-month contracts to shorter three- or four-month offers and purchase just for fast wants.
FAS attributed the change in European coffee-buying habits to increased costs. The report didn’t point out the European deforestation regulation, EUDR, which has now been delayed to December 2026.
The espresso commerce panorama did shift considerably in November when the USA dropped a further 40% obligation on Brazilian espresso and eliminated a ten% reciprocal tariff on imports from most international locations, returning Brazil’s efficient U.S. espresso tariff to zero.
FAS says that transfer is more likely to push extra Brazilian arabica towards the U.S. and intensify competitors in Europe, the place India sells most of its espresso.
Home Demand
Home espresso consumption is forecast at 1.36 million baggage in 2025/26, up from 1.15 million the yr earlier than, with soluble espresso anticipated to seize about 70% of the market. Per-capita consumption stays simply 0.07 kilograms, far beneath the worldwide common of roughly 1.3 kilograms.
New tax and labeling insurance policies are designed to nudge that home market alongside. Efficient Sept. 22, 2025, the Items and Companies Tax on on the spot espresso, extracts and essences dropped from 18% to five%, matching the speed on filter espresso. FAS estimates the lower might decrease retail costs by 11-12% and help demand.
Native Costs and Shares
Farm-gate costs in Karnataka have climbed sharply, in response to the report, with arabica parchment up about 58% yr over yr, and robusta cherry up round 10%, outpacing the Worldwide Espresso Group’s composite indicator for arabica.
FAS attributes the divergence to a world provide crunch in Brazil and Vietnam mixed with India’s comparatively small however high-quality output.
Ending shares are projected at 165,000 baggage in 2025/26, the best in three years however nonetheless tight by historic requirements.
Along with new sustainability requirements being drafted by the Espresso Board of India, the report suggests India will stay a distinct segment however necessary provider of arabica and robusta into international blends, even because it tries to show extra of its personal inhabitants into on a regular basis espresso drinkers.
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