• Between 2022 and 2024, the EU27’s espresso consumption remained just about flat, in response to the European Espresso Federation.
• China, in the meantime, not too long ago reached 87,505 shops, overtaking the US because the world’s largest branded espresso store market.
• Indonesia is on observe to surpass Japan because the world’s fifth-largest espresso shopper, and India’s espresso business is ready to double in worth by 2030.
• The dynamism of rising specialty espresso markets can provide extra mature roasters recent insights into navigating an more and more difficult espresso business, together with neighborhood engagement and catering to native style preferences.

In lots of international locations worldwide, specialty espresso is now not a distinct segment; it’s a crowded, aggressive panorama.

Consumption continues to hit report highs in mature, established markets equivalent to the UK and the US, however progress stays regular relative to rising markets.

Revenues from India’s espresso outlets are rising at almost twice the tempo of their North American counterparts, whereas Bloomberg not too long ago topped Shanghai the world’s “most compelling” metropolis for espresso.

Amid risky espresso costs and financial stagnation, roasters in additional mature markets have been pressured to take a realistic method. These in rising markets, nonetheless, nonetheless have the capability to construct their manufacturers round enthusiasm and keenness – two elements that outlined specialty espresso.

Billy Otieno at African Espresso Roasters and Hisham Abubaker at Dimitri’s Espresso clarify how this entrepreneurial spirit can encourage roasters worldwide to revisit their roots.

You might also like our article on why rising specialty espresso markets present promise amid excessive costs.

Ardour turns into pragmatism in mature specialty espresso markets

The specialty espresso motion emerged within the late Nineties in international locations just like the US, Australia, and Norway. Spearheaded by passionate people who challenged the established order in commodity espresso, it supplied a brand new method to doing enterprise.

As with every new enterprise, novelty was every little thing. Roasters sought to determine their manufacturers by investing closely within the “wow” issue of remarkable espresso, traceable from farm to cup. Handbrewed pour overs and light-weight roasts elevated the sense of expertise and educated prospects concerning the huge spectrum of flavours that specialty espresso supplied.

Consumption surged in these international locations and areas as prospects sought higher-quality, sustainable espresso that got here with a singular story. In consequence, the business grew at a exceptional fee. In Australia – one of many world’s hottest markets for specialty espresso – the variety of cafés exploded between 2005 and 2020, totalling over 28,700 in 2024.

Nevertheless, in additional established markets, these pioneering espresso entrepreneurs have matured. The typical age of a café proprietor in Australia is now reportedly 40, and plenty of all over the world have confronted challenges, together with the 2008 monetary disaster, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the historic C market highs in 2025, which have reshaped their companies.

Many “enjoyable” features of early third wave espresso tradition have grow to be much less of a precedence. As an alternative, roastery and café homeowners are specializing in operational effectivity, monetary literacy, and mutually-beneficial partnerships.

Whereas adopting a extra business-like method is critical to outlive, it dangers shedding the entrepreneurial spark that first outlined the specialty espresso business.

Rising markets, in the meantime, thrive on enthusiasm

In rising markets, the transition from commodity to specialty espresso consumption remains to be underway. In consequence, specialty espresso stays an thrilling proposition for shoppers.

In the meantime, consumption in established markets is stalling. The 2024-25 European Espresso Report discovered that the EU27’s whole espresso consumption fell by 0.3% between 2022 and 2024. The decline was most notable in northern European markets, together with the Nordic international locations that helped pioneer world specialty espresso tradition.

This stands in stark distinction to rising specialty espresso markets, equivalent to India, Indonesia, China, and Saudi Arabia, that are experiencing exponential progress.

By 2030, the worth of India’s espresso market is projected to double, and specialty espresso is predicted to account for almost 18% of this progress. Indonesia, in the meantime, has grow to be the world’s fifth-largest espresso shopper, and, in response to Deloitte, is on observe to overhaul Japan – a rustic with a classy third wave espresso tradition.

China has emerged as a world espresso powerhouse. Mission Café East Asia 2026 reviews that the nation’s branded espresso store market reached 87,505 shops, turning into the one branded espresso store market globally so as to add over 20,000 internet new shops in a calendar 12 months. Chains like Luckin, Cotti, and Fortunate Cup, in addition to small impartial specialty espresso manufacturers, have been key to this fast progress.

Knowledge from Mission Café Center East 2025 states that Saudi Arabia is the most important branded espresso store market within the Center East, reaching 5,130 shops and accounting for 46% of all shops within the area. Its progress is outpacing many established markets, signalling the Kingdom’s ascent as a serious participant in world espresso consumption.

This explosive progress demonstrates how creativity and enthusiasm stay highly effective aggressive instruments in rising markets, serving as a reminder of “what as soon as was” for extra mature manufacturers.

“In Kenya, ardour for espresso remains to be uncooked and private,” says Billy, a roaster at African Espresso Roasters in Athi River, Kenya. Though solely 5% of Kenya’s espresso is consumed regionally, the USA International Agriculture Service initiatives a 6.9% improve in home espresso consumption to 62,000 luggage in 2025/26.

“The Kenyan espresso scene isn’t simply concerning the cup; it’s the story behind it,” he provides. “Whenever you see somebody mild up on the sip of a washed SL-28 for the primary time, you realise, ‘That is what differentiation actually means!’”

Not like their counterparts in Western markets, business professionals are much less constrained by decades-old third-wave aesthetics or inflexible, inherited guidelines. They’re as a substitute actively combining world high quality requirements with native cultural tastes and entrepreneurial innovation.

“With training and tailoring roasting strategies to supply a degree of sweetness and bitterness that Jordanians love, the native palate started to just accept and like specialty espresso,” says Hisham, the founding father of Dimitri’s Espresso, the primary specialty espresso roaster in Jordan. 

Between 1981 and 2018, Jordan’s per capita espresso consumption elevated by a staggering 5,800%. Traditionally favouring Turkish espresso, the nation’s specialty espresso tradition emerged round 2015, with the opening of Dimitri’s.

“By additionally incorporating conventional native meals and drinks like zaatar fatayer and karkadeh (hibiscus) drinks, shoppers have stayed loyal and felt a way of belonging to the model,” he provides.

What can mature roasters study from this?

The challenges of market saturation and rising operational prices within the US, UK, Western Europe, and Australia are substantial for espresso enterprise homeowners. But, the methods utilized in rising markets can provide recent insights for attaining renewed competitiveness. 

One of many crucial classes is to relearn to prioritise cultural relevance, buyer expertise, and adaptive technique over an remoted concentrate on product high quality.

Roasters in established markets usually favor a uniform menu of espresso, pour over, batch brew, and basic milk-based drinks, which may typically really feel disconnected from native culinary id. Enterprise homeowners in rising markets, nonetheless, usually discover success by tapping into native cultural flavour preferences.

“Think about a café that serves fermented Ruiru 11 alongside moringa tea, or pairs espresso with spiced mahamri,” Billy says. “When specialty espresso speaks the language of the land, it turns into unforgettable for shoppers.”

The decrease diploma of market saturation in these areas additionally signifies that high quality, brewing abilities, and distinctive hospitality stay crucial aggressive differentiators.

Customers in rising markets actively search training, creating new alternatives for café operators to have interaction with them. Café experiences are sometimes extra immersive and sensory, equivalent to smelling espresso earlier than and after it’s floor and watching baristas put together espresso on the bar.

This degree of engagement can also be mirrored within the café’s lively position as a “third house”: a welcoming hub for socialising, working, and neighborhood constructing. Human interplay is a key a part of the expertise; prospects really feel like they’re taking part, somewhat than merely receiving a product.

Within the Center East, the concentrate on the immersive espresso expertise is crucial, says Hisham.

“Though pace is valued, the local people is extra relaxed concerning time, permitting for a special sort of café expertise,” he tells me. “In Jordan, we focus extra on having a pleasant environment for folks to get pleasure from finding out, working, and socialising, not simply getting their espresso.”

For extra established roasters, this might imply reclaiming “conventional” hospitality by slowing down key service interactions when attainable, shifting away from automation the place possible, and re-engaging the senses. In flip, they will replicate the keenness that after attracted shoppers in these markets.

Espresso store and roastery operators in rising markets usually serve a extremely various buyer base, from native college students and dealing professionals to vacationers. This requires a extra agile and conscious method to pricing and product variety.

Efficiently balancing affordably priced blends with ultra-premium micro tons ensures each profitability and accessibility. Serving a number of financial segments concurrently contrasts with the usually premium-only mannequin now customary in saturated markets. 

By adopting this strategic method, mature roasters can increase their potential buyer base and allow their core, high-quality model to function a gateway to specialty espresso for a wider phase of the local people.

The present hyper-competitive atmosphere in mature specialty espresso markets requires revitalising the business’s founding values of ardour and enthusiasm.

By trying to rising markets– particularly their dedication to cultural relevance, immersive buyer expertise, and agile strategic focus – established roasters can inject renewed entrepreneurial power into their operations. 

“Cease trying sideways and begin trying inwards: What does your area people really need?” Billy concludes.

Loved this? Then learn our article on how girls are driving progress in rising specialty espresso markets.

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