India’s whole espresso manufacturing is forecast to say no within the 2025/26 market 12 months (October by September), with whole output anticipated to fall to the equal of 6 million 60-kilogram baggage, down from 6.2 million baggage the 12 months prior, in response to the newest USDA estimates. 

Adversarial climate situations — primarily dry winter spells adopted by extreme pre-monsoon rains in key areas — have disrupted flowering and fruit set, resulting in decreased yields throughout each arabica and robusta crops.

On the identical time, home consumption is forecast to rise to 1.4 million baggage, pushed primarily by demand for soluble espresso. 

Farmgate costs have surged, with arabica parchment up 51% year-over-year and robusta cherry costs up 17%, reflecting tighter international provide and low inventories. Merchants reported restricted availability of unsold robusta in home markets, with agency demand supporting carryover shares.

[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices, with predictions for the upcoming market year.]

📉 Export Outlook

• Complete exports are forecast at 5.99 million 60-kg baggage, down from 6.21 million in 2024/25.

• Inexperienced bean exports: 3.56 million baggage
  Soluble exports: 2.42 million baggage

• Prime patrons: Italy, Germany, UAE and Russia.

• 12 months-to-date shipments (Oct–Jan) are down 5% in comparison with the earlier 12 months.

• Patrons in Europe are slowing purchases as a consequence of record-high costs and squeezed margins.

• International demand for robusta stays robust, particularly for espresso and immediate blends.

🌱 Space and Planting Developments

• Planted space and harvested space stay at roughly 475,000 hectares and 432,000 hectares, respectively. 

• Slight declines in each arabica and robusta harvested areas (–0.5%).

• Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu account for 77% of whole planted space.

• Minor expansions noticed in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and Northeastern India.

🌧️ Climate Disruptions

• Karnataka: 82% rainfall deficit in January–February; 96% extra rain in March–April.

• Kerala: 66% deficit in winter rainfall; 68% extra in pre-monsoon rains.

• These fluctuations have hindered flowering and fruit improvement.

☕ Home Consumption

• Forecast consumption: 1.4 million baggage

• Per capita consumption stays low at 0.07 kilograms, however is rising.

• Home soluble producers reported double-digit progress within the earlier market 12 months. 

🏷️ Imports and Shares

• Complete imports: 1.33 million baggage, principally inexperienced coffees for soluble processing.

• Main suppliers: Indonesia, Vietnam, Kenya, Uganda.

• Rupee depreciation and international worth hikes could restrict import progress.

• Opening shares: 355,000 baggage, held privately by growers and merchants.

For full knowledge tables and year-over-year comparisons, see the complete USDA Espresso Annual Report for India (Might 2025).

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