As the potential of a U.S. recession looms, social media customers have been busy predicting the downturn by pointing to so-called “recession indicators.” On TikTok, some cite the rise of “Skinnytok,” a subculture that glorifies consuming much less. Others level to grocery store shows of canned items, stories of rising frozen pizza and spaghetti gross sales, and even the recognition of small bottles of liquor. Traditionally, skipping fries with fast-food orders has additionally been seen as an indication of financial hassle.

However specialists say the truth of how People eat in onerous instances is extra advanced. The best way folks modify their diets throughout a recession isn’t absolutely captured by viral memes or eye-catching statistics. Behavioral shifts usually run deeper than a couple of fast substitutions on the checkout counter.

Much less consuming out

Barry Popkin, a College of North Carolina professor whose analysis focuses on long-term dietary developments and vitamin economics, tells Meals & Wine that probably the most vital recession-driven shift is the place People purchase their meals. When wallets tighten, folks spend much less at eating places, fast-food chains, meals vehicles, and different service suppliers — and extra at grocery shops.

Through the 2008 Nice Recession, the change was dramatic. In line with a 2018 examine by the U.S. Division of Agriculture’s Financial Analysis Service, family spending on “meals away from residence” — meals bought from eating places and different meals service companies — declined sharply. Between 2006 and 2010, it fell by 18%, and it didn’t rebound to pre-2006 ranges till 2016.

This shift was constant throughout socioeconomic teams, suggesting it wasn’t solely about affordability but additionally about time. “For instance, if somebody loses their job, they may have extra time to collect components and cook dinner a meal from scratch,” Popkin explains.

Sticking to the identical meals

Whereas recessions push folks to chop down on restaurant meals, the varieties of meals they purchase on the grocery retailer don’t change as a lot as many may assume. Popkin notes that in the course of the 2008 downturn, core meals purchases remained pretty steady.

Take frozen pizza, as an illustration. Although it has been flagged as a “recession indicator,” Popkin argues that it accounts for too small a slice of total meals purchases to reliably observe financial well being.

“ You do discover a subset of individuals transferring to cheaper meals of the identical type,” he says. “However that’s a tiny subsegment of America that was actually affected. It could be a couple of million, but it surely’s not tens of thousands and thousands.”

General, most households stick with acquainted meals and components. What adjustments is the stability between comfort and labor. “What they have been shopping for simply shifted to extra labor time at residence — extra cooking-time prep required — versus getting ready-to-eat [foods], ready-to-heat, takeout, and so forth,” Popkin says. “It’s not a change within the portions of, let’s say, eggs or flour or sugar — it’s simply the place they’re buying.”

The well being impacts of recessions

A significant consequence of consuming fewer meals out is a shift in vitamin. Restaurant and takeout meals is usually much less nutritious than meals ready at residence, and the 2008 recession coincided with a measurable enchancment in People’ diets. USDA information reveals folks consumed much less saturated fats and ldl cholesterol, whereas fiber consumption elevated. Quick meals, sugary snacks, and soda all grew to become much less frequent within the common weight loss program.

Nonetheless, Popkin and his colleagues on the College of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Gillings College of World Public Well being counsel these more healthy habits weren’t really attributable to the recession itself. As an alternative, People had already begun making extra nutritious selections as early as 2003, partly as a result of public well being campaigns. Efforts to promote complete grains, cut back sugary drink consumption, and spotlight the hazards of added sugars have been starting to repay.

Nonetheless, the long-term well being impacts of a recession are removed from rosy. Whereas a brief drop in fast-food consumption may seem like a silver lining, shedding earnings altogether adjustments the story dramatically.

“Going from excessive earnings to center earnings, there’s minimal impression [on eating] besides somewhat little bit of luxurious,” Popkin explains. “What we’re actually speaking about goes from working to not working, residing off of Supplemental Vitamin Help Program (SNAP) and Medicaid and so forth, after which it’s drastic.”

SNAP cuts and future pressure

The federal government meals help program SNAP is a lifeline for thousands and thousands of People. However even with assist, making ends meet is tough. As of 2025, the typical SNAP recipient will get about $6.16 per day for meals. In line with the USDA Meals and Vitamin Service, 61% of recipients report that the price of nutritious components stays a barrier to consuming properly.

Now, adjustments in federal coverage may make that battle even tougher. President Trump’s Massive Lovely Invoice, set to take impact on October 1, consists of cuts to SNAP that can cut back advantages no matter whether or not a recession really takes maintain. The Congressional Funds Workplace initiatives that 2.4 million fewer People will obtain SNAP advantages every month by way of 2034.

The true impression could also be far broader. The City Institute estimates that 22.3 million U.S. households may lose some or all of their month-to-month advantages. For these households, the query isn’t whether or not to swap takeout for residence cooking or choose frozen pizza over recent. It’s whether or not they’ll have sufficient meals in any respect.

The true indicator

So whereas TikTok developments and grocery-store shows could make for catchy recession chatter, they miss the larger image. What actually defines how People eat throughout financial downturns isn’t a unusual meals fad — it’s whether or not households have the sources and assist to maintain meals on the desk.

In that sense, the truest “recession indicator” isn’t within the frozen aisle or the drive-thru window. It’s within the lives of thousands and thousands of households, stretching each greenback simply to make it to the following meal.