Colombia’s espresso manufacturing is forecast to say no by 5.3% within the 2025/26 market yr, reaching the equal of 12.5 million 60-kilogram luggage, in keeping with the newest USDA estimates.

The projected decline follows a robust 2024/25 harvest however displays injury from extreme rainfall that hindered flowering and fruit improvement. Though the La Niña climate sample is predicted to weaken within the second half of 2025, producers proceed to face long-term disincentives to put money into replanting and renovation.

Exports are projected to lower barely to 11.8 million luggage, down from 12.3 million in 2024/25.

The USA stays Colombia’s high export market, adopted by the European Union and Canada. Excessive costs and favorable change charges have supported export income, though considerations about sustainability laws and manufacturing constraints stay.

Home consumption is predicted to stay regular at roughly 2.2 million luggage, with excessive retail costs offsetting modest financial restoration. In the meantime, imports — principally from Brazil, Peru and Ecuador — are forecast to extend to 1.5 million luggage, serving to to fulfill native demand.

[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices.]

📉 Export Outlook

• Exports are forecast at 11.8 million 60-kilogram luggage, a 4.1% decline from the earlier yr, reflecting decrease manufacturing.

• In 2024/25, exports are estimated at 12.3 million luggage, up 2.5% year-over-year following El Niño-driven restoration in yields.

• High export locations (Oct. 2024-Feb. 2025):

  • United States accounts for greater than 40% of complete exports, adopted by the European Union, Canada and Japan.

  • U.S. imports of Colombian espresso rose greater than 20% year-over-year, though a brand new 10% tariff might have an effect on the 2025/26 yr.
• The Colombian Espresso Growers Federation Fedecafe handles roughly 18% of exports, whereas the remaining are dealt with by non-public merchants.

• The Colombian Juan Valdez model plans to develop North American distribution by means of a new partnership with Inexperienced Espresso Firm.

🌱 Manufacturing and Rising Circumstances

• Manufacturing for 2025/26 is forecast at 12.5 million luggage, down from 13.2 million in 2024/25, primarily on account of extreme rain affecting flowering.

• In 2024, Colombia’s rising areas skilled, on common, 12 consecutive months of upper temperatures.

• Espresso rust incidence is estimated at 5.7%, and borer infestation at 2.2% — each thought of manageable figures, aided by resistant varieties.

• As of 2024, 87% of Colombia’s espresso space is planted with rust-resistant cultivars, up from 35% in 2010.

• Tree density averages 5,340 per hectare, with productiveness remaining above 14 luggage per hectare.

• A brand new disease-resistant selection, Castillo 2.0, was launched by Cenicafe in December 2024, however has but to point out widespread adoption.

☕ Home Consumption

• Consumption is projected to carry at 2.2 million luggage in 2025/26, unchanged from the earlier yr.

• Colombia’s financial restoration is predicted to be average, with inflation falling to 4.1% and GDP development at 2.6% in 2025.

• Whereas curiosity in specialty espresso is rising, most households nonetheless devour soluble or blended merchandise.

• The “Café de Colombia” triangle seal is licensed to 850 home manufacturers and stays a key home advertising software.

🏛️ Coverage and Sustainability

• Fedecafe represents greater than 550,000 espresso producers, managing coaching, analysis and gross sales help underneath a public-private settlement that runs by means of 2026.

• In April 2024, Colombia launched the Espresso Revenue Compensation Mechanism (MECIC-2024), a price-stabilization mechanism, nevertheless it has not been activated, as costs stay excessive.

• Fedecafe is getting ready producers to fulfill the brand new EU deforestation-free necessities (EUDR), utilizing a geospatial platform to map farm places.

• Colombia exports greater than 20% of its espresso to the EU. The EUDR compliance deadline is about for the tip of this yr for big European patrons and roasters.

For full tables and commerce breakdowns, see the complete USDA Espresso Annual Report for Colombia (Could 2025).

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