Mexico’s espresso manufacturing is forecast to rise 1% to 4.14 million 60-kilogram luggage in market yr 2026/27, pushed by expanded robusta manufacturing, improved farm administration and continued funding after two years of robust costs, in accordance with the newest USDA Overseas Agricultural Service annual report.

[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]

Manufacturing Development

The 2026/27 manufacturing forecast totals 4.135 million 60-kilogram luggage, together with 3.575 million luggage of arabica and 560,000 luggage of robusta. That will put complete manufacturing above the 4.08 million luggage estimated for 2025/26 and the three.93 million luggage estimated for 2024/25.

FAS stated Mexico’s modest manufacturing improve is being pushed partly by robusta, which is gaining floor due to its illness resistance, suitability for lower-altitude climates and demand from giant soluble espresso processors.

Chiapas, Veracruz and Puebla account for greater than 80% of Mexico’s espresso manufacturing. Chiapas is forecast to stay the highest producing state by quantity, whereas Puebla is predicted to put up the very best yields, supported by favorable soils, infrastructure close to main cities and funding in espresso leaf rust-resistant crops.

Costs Assist Farm Funding

Espresso costs have fallen from 2025 peaks however stay effectively above historic ranges. The report cited Worldwide Espresso Group information displaying arabica costs averaged $3.31 per pound in March 2026, about 40% above the 10-year common.

That has allowed some producers to reinvest in farm administration, improve plant density, apply extra inputs and enhance high quality management. FAS stated the continued adoption of espresso leaf rust-resistant arabica varieties is predicted to strengthen manufacturing with out increasing planted space.

Consumption Rises with Rising Cafe Tradition

Home consumption is forecast to rise to three.17 million luggage in 2026/27, together with 1.35 million luggage of roasted espresso and 1.82 million luggage of soluble espresso. Soluble espresso stays the dominant format, representing roughly 57% of consumption.

FAS stated development is being supported by retail espresso retailers, ready-to-drink espresso, premium espresso traits and on-line entry to specialty espresso manufacturers. The report additionally cited Starbucks’ plan to succeed in 1,000 shops in Mexico in 2026.

Commerce and Coverage

Espresso exports are forecast to fall about 1% yr over yr to three.41 million 60-kilogram luggage in 2026/27, as manufacturing features are anticipated to be partly absorbed by home consumption. America stays the first vacation spot for Mexican espresso in all kinds.

Imports are forecast to fall 4% to 2.43 million luggage as increased native robusta manufacturing reduces demand for imported inexperienced espresso.

The Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Improvement, often called SADER, continues to run coffee-specific producer assist applications. Its Manufacturing for Wellbeing program supplied $388 per producer per yr to 181,364 espresso producers in 2026, masking 216,306 hectares.

The report additionally cited Café Bienestar, a program run by Mexico’s Secretariat of Wellbeing that buys espresso from producers in Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz and Guerrero on the market by government-backed Bienestar shops. This system is estimated to characterize 3-4% of the nation’s soluble espresso market.